Earthquakes unpredictable; none can predict its intensity, timing: Experts

SRINAGAR — Stating that there was nothing to worry over the frequent earthquakes in Jammu and Kashmir, the experts here on Saturday said that no one can predict the timing and intensity of the earthquake.

Professor ‪Shakil Ahmad Romshoo‬, a geologist, who is currently Vice Chancellor of the Islamic University of Sciences and Technology (IUST), while talking to the news agency KNO said that there is no mechanism available to predict the position, magnitude or timing of the earthquake.

“The places where back-to-back earthquakes are being reported in the past 6–7 days have also witnessed 39 back-to-back foreshocks in the year 2013 and even one among them was measuring 6, but there was no major earthquake then after,” Romshoo said.

He further added that Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh are very vulnerable from an earthquake point of view, but it is not possible that foreshocks will lead to a major earthquake.

However, he said that keeping in view the vulnerable area from an earthquake point of view, the people should take long-term measures like houses, schools, hospitals and other places should be made earthquake resistant for which everybody has to play a role.

Assistant Professor, Rakesh Chandra, who currently works at the Department of Earth Sciences, University of Kashmir, said that it is a fact that a lot of energy is accumulated below the Kashmir Himalayas, which is the outcome of the Kangra earthquake in 1905 and the Muzaffarabad earthquake in 2007. “The energy below Kashmir Himalayas will get released through earthquakes only, but no one can predict the timing and intensity of the earthquake.”

“There are chances of energy release through an earthquake, but it can be low intensity or major also, which is a natural process, whatever it is inside, it has to come out,” he said, adding that nobody can predict when the earthquake is going to occur.

About the frequent earthquakes, he said that it is good that the energy is released without any harm to the property as well as the life. “Instead of having major earthquakes, it is better to witness low-intensity jolts for the release of energy. There is nothing to worry about earthquakes, it is a natural phenomenon. I just want to appeal to people that they should get aware of the earthquake rather than be in a panic,” he said.

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